Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 11

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You play... to win... the game
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YTD
Against the opening line: 26-12-1
Against that same closing line: 23-15-1

Sides Record: 19-15 (+18.92 units)
Totals Record: 21-12 (+24.70 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 6-10 (-5.94 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 3-5 (-0.31 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 50-45 (52.63%)
Net: +34.92 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 2nd halfs): 46-37 (55.42%)

Units Wagered: 269.5 units
Units Won: 34.92 units
Net %: 12.96% profit per unit wagered


Picks soon....
 

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Hello,
Pinnacle is getting later and later with opening lines
I think that you scare them!:103631605
 

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Is it possible that Caribbean is not on Daylight Savings Time,

and therefore one hour behind?
 

You play... to win... the game
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Might be right... Never thought of it like that... just gotta keep playing the waiting game for now
 

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The current time in Curacao, Netherlands Antilles

<HR><TABLE cellPadding=4 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top bgColor=#e7d6ad>
Region
</TD><TD vAlign=top>America</TD><TD vAlign=top>Back to Regions</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="30%" bgColor=#e7d6ad>
Country​

</TD><TD vAlign=top width="40%">Netherlands Antilles</TD><TD vAlign=top width="30%">Back to America </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="30%" bgColor=#e7d6ad>
Location​

</TD><TD vAlign=top width="40%">Curacao</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="30%" bgColor=#e7d6ad>
Geographical Location​

</TD><TD vAlign=top width="40%">12° 11' N, 69° 0' W</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="30%" bgColor=#e7d6ad>
Current Local Time​

</TD><TD vAlign=top width="40%">Tue Apr 5 13:19:49 2005 </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="30%" bgColor=#e7d6ad>
Greenwich Mean Time (GMT)
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)​

</TD><TD vAlign=center width="40%">Tue Apr 5 17:19:49 2005 </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="30%" bgColor=#e7d6ad>
Local Time Zone
</TD><TD vAlign=top width="40%">GMT-0400</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="30%" bgColor=#e7d6ad>
Currently Observing​

</TD><TD vAlign=top width="40%">Standard Time


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

You play... to win... the game
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So in English, that means that it doesn't explain anything, right?
 

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You guys really crack me up. You don't have anything better to do than discuss time changes, and its impact on the timing of the release of opening lines...
 

Last night I drank enough to kill a small Asian fa
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I'm a college student, I can afford to be lazy and get opening lines
 

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Hey Daringly,

Ever stood in line at the Stardust on Sunday evening as they
opened NFL? Lotsa moulah changing hands in about 20 minutes!
 

You play... to win... the game
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Here's what I got... I'll get some recaps in as the afternoon progresses...

Dallas -10
Arizona pk
LV -7
Colorado -4
Chicago +7
Nashville/Dallas under 100.5
 

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Guru,

If I understand you, you played Columbus at pick (now +4)
and I want to jump on if this is coorect.

Also, any opinion Orlando under?
 

You play... to win... the game
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Friday Night Card
Dallas (-10) vs. Nashville (3 units -105): Dallas enters this game flaming mad off of a bye week and a loss to Colorado the week before. Nashville is sky high after posting a ferocious comeback against Grand Rapids, shutting them out in the 2nd half. However, this Kats team ain't marching into Dallas and pulling any sort of an upset this week. @ Grand Rapids, nice job. But in Dallas, where there are actually fans and actually a real team? Not happening this time. Nashville is a nice little story getting off the pine, but Leon Murray has been nothing short of miserable this year, and Dallas continues to roll over lesser opponents. If Nashville reaches 35 in this game I'd be surprised... which brings us to our next bet... but to close this one out...

Current Line: -13 (-105)... Bet to about 16 at 3 units, 16.5 to 20 at 1.5-2 units

Dallas/Nashville under 100.5 (3 units -105): Even if Dallas scores 65 this should be alright... lol... But in seriousness, Nashville has had a hard time reaching 40, meaning this bet is for Nashville to not get 60 dropped on them, a task that's been impossible thus far. Sperdeuto still has himself a wail of a defense. Look for the final in this one to be Dallas in the mid 40s to Nashville in the high 20s... something REALLY ugly like that.

Current Line: 97.5 (-110)... Bet to about 94 for 3 units, 90-93.5 at 2 units

Columbus (pk) @ Arizona (4 units -105): Movement on this line puzzles me a bit. Arizona has shown no signs of winning games at home of late, finding a way to lose each time at home this season. Columbus has at least shown some pulse lately, having made a nice comeback against Philly and playing New York tough. Columbus at 4 points is a steal in my opinion. Joe Germaine looks pretty crappy still, and I expect Columbus' defense, still not nearly as bad as one might think, to keep this one close until the end, when Arizona will shoot itself once again. Might throw a bit more down on Columbus with the points, but I expect this one to bounce back quickly.

Currently Line: +4 (-104).... Bet back to a pick for 4 units, -1 to -2.5 at 3 units

Las Vegas (-7) vs. Grand Rapids (4 units -105): Ah, the Rampage... Back for more after the self-destruction in the 2nd half. Don't you think for a second that Vegas' defense is SALIVATING at this game after watching tape from Bishop running around like a chicken with his head cut off while Hines was blanketed. Don't see Grand Rapids' offense being anywhere near potent in this one, as Vegas' defense will match up just like Nashville did. Watch the offense led by Dolezel to go nutso, and this one shouldn't end up being very close in the end. Vegas wins by a ton if they want to, but it's the motivation that keeps this from being 5 units. But even that should be sky high seeing how they're 5-5 and still in the thick of the playoff race. Get better game for the Glads in front of the home crowd after two rough ones.

Current Line: -13 (-105)... Bet away up to about 17 for the listed units
 

You play... to win... the game
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MathProf said:
Guru,

If I understand you, you played Columbus at pick (now +4)
and I want to jump on if this is coorect.

Also, any opinion Orlando under?

Yep, take the points in the Arz/Cmb game. Regarding Orlando under... I'm gonna make a big post about the game in the thread started by Tampa Luke later today. Check for that and you'll be able to pass your own judgment, because I refuse to bet this game... lol
 

You play... to win... the game
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Sunday Card
Colorado (-4) vs. Philadelphia (5 units -105): Absolutely the WORST line of the week. Is it just me, or did Colorado just dismantle Vegas by 3 TDs? Colorado simply "crushes" people at home, just killing Columbus and Vegas in recent memory. Both of these teams enter on a roll, but in retrospect, Philly hasn't played THAT difficult of a game in that stretch. Beating Tampa, who the jury will make the call on this week against Orlando, and Columbus isn't overly impressive. Colorado is one of the AFL's elite, and know that possibly their only shot at hosting San Jose in the semi-finals might be to win out... and with the schedule left, they might. This will just be another bump in the road for the Crush, and for Philly, they will soon realize that the run they made means squat, as they are going to be left out of the playoffs anyway. The high flying circus of Graziani and gang will be shut down once again, as the WR/DBs for Colorado are bigger than Scott and gang, thus will probably not simply beat their men down field and will get jumped over when they play the other way. Dutton should have a real nice day leading Colorado to victory.

Current Line: -7.5 (-105)... Bet with supreme confidence, all 5 units up til 14

Chicago (+7) vs. San Jose (2 units -105): Will have a hard time betting against San Jose the rest of the season... But I'll say this... someone's going to cover them at some point. Chicago is a dangerous home squad, especially with the confidence they just gained by beating New York away from home. They're right back in the playoff hunt, and a win here could really give them a nice lift to make a solid wild card run. They also know that a loss here could spell the end of the divisional race for them. San Jose... they're back to being the Sabercats. I believe it's 5 straight covers for them. Darren Arbeit's got the boys playing well, but this number might be a bit too hefty to cover. Like Chicago to have a shot at the final whistle, but ultimately the game going to San Jose by 3 or 4.

Current Line: +6 (-110)... Good til about 4 for the 2 units. Moneyline value won't be bad either

So that's the card ladies and gents... We'll see how we make out.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

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